Brexit Dominates this Week

The GBP is being driven by POLITICAL NEWS only at the moment.

Any kind of technical analysis is pretty much non-existent. Press releases are being release by a multitude of people directly involved in the negotiations each giving their version of how the talks are progressing.

The Irish border issue is one of the main stumbling blocks in the talks and finding a solution there that would not involve border checks is a political nightmare considering the country’s history.

The EU want a special arrangement where Northern Ireland (The UK) would remain aligned with the European Union. May opposes this as being politically unacceptable and will not agree to splitting up the UK.

Looks like the EU would be happy to kick this can down the road by extending the talks with till a new general election is called in the UK and a new Brexit vote that might get a YES.

On Monday May is expected to tell parliament that the vast majority of the Brexit deal has been agreed (95%) as she looks to prove that she is making progress.

On Wednesday this week Theresa May heads to Brussels were she is expected to make a presentation to the other 27 members of the EU. Talks will follow (without May) on whether the negotiations will continue into November with the UK.

The announcements that will follow, likely a press conference on Thursday should result in volatility in the markets and offer a good trading opportunity.

The price is currently stuck between two zones (in blue on the chart) waiting for the next big announcement to head in one direction or the other.